covid-19 peak canada

This is when each province in Canada predicts COVID-19 cases will peak

Canada is predicting that COVID-19 cases will peak in late spring, as long as strong controls remain in place, but it seems that each province and territory is on a unique timeline.

Here's when each jurisdiction in Canada will peak, according to the latest predictions from health experts.

British Columbia

The province has been admirably successful at flattening the curve.

As early as March 27, Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry predicted that a peak in cases could occur in "the next two weeks" — so by April 10.

Speaking of the decrease in B.C.'s daily transmission rate from 24 per cent to 12 per cent, Henry said, "We are cautiously optimistic. We are levelling off."

However, an early report from the Canadian Medical Association Journal predicts the peak will occur between late May and early August, depending on the level of physical distancing in the province.

Alberta

The province's official predictive models predict a peak in cases around mid-May.

Premier Jason Kenney is planning to accelerate training for ICU nurses and other healthcare professionals, as well as secure hundreds of additional ventilators before that time.

He described the provincial government's efforts to procure medical equipment as "very aggressive."

However, an early report from the Canadian Medical Association Journal predicts the peak will occur between early June and early August, depending on the level of physical distancing in the province.

Saskatchewan

Provincial modeling predicts between 3,075 to 8,370 deaths throughout the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The province has not given an exact date for a peak in cases.

An early report from the Canadian Medical Association Journal predicts the peak will occur between early June and late July, depending on the level of physical distancing in the province.

Manitoba

The province has yet to release any projections for a peak, but Provincial Health Officer Dr. Brent Roussin warned that Manitoba is "likely going to be dealing with this virus for some time."

An early report from the Canadian Medical Association Journal predicts the peak will occur between late May and late July, depending on the level of physical distancing in the province.

Ontario

The province has released modeling projections that predict between 3,000 to 15,000 deaths by the end of the pandemic.

Although Ontario health officials have yet to predict a peak in cases for the province, London's Medical Officer of Health Dr. Chris Mackie is predicting a peak for the Middlesex-London area in a matter of weeks.

York Region's Medical Officer of Health Dr. Karim Kurji says that he is "cautiously optimistic" that York Region may already be at the peak.

An early report from the Canadian Medical Association Journal predicts the peak will occur between mid-June and early August, depending on the level of physical distancing in the province.

Quebec

According to Premier François Legault, the province may be approaching a peak very soon.

Citing the relatively low number of hospitalizations in recent days, Legault said, "We may see the light at the end of the tunnel, but we must continue to do everything we can to win the battle against the virus."

The province currently has the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Canada. Health experts attribute this primarily to Quebec's early spring break, which saw many citizens travel internationally.

An early report from the Canadian Medical Association Journal predicts the peak will occur between late May and early July, depending on the level of physical distancing in the province.

The province is still planning to open bars and restaurants by May 4.

Newfoundland

Newfoundland Health Minister John Haggie warned that the province may not see a peak in COVID-19 cases until November.

On Thursday, Haggie said, "These scenarios will be rerun as data comes and revised. It may well be that November is the wrong month and it will come earlier. We don't know."

In contrast, an early report from the Canadian Medical Association Journal predicts the peak will occur in early June and early July, depending on the level of physical distancing in the province.

Prince Edward Island

P.E.I. has yet to predict a peak in cases, although the province has been somewhat successful at flattening the curve.

The province had a five-day period of time where no new cases were reported, and only three cases have been reported since April 2.

Provincial Health Officer Dr. Heather Morrison announced that modelling projections will be released in the days ahead.

An early report from the Canadian Medical Association Journal predicts the peak will occur between early June and mid-July, depending on the level of physical distancing in the province.

Nova Scotia

The province has yet to release official modeling projections, but Chief Medical Officer Dr. Robert Strang said on Thursday that the government is pushing "quite hard" this week to get it completed.

Strang says that Nova Scotia is two to three weeks behind other provinces, which means that the province's peak likely won't occur until late April or early May.

New Brunswick

The province released its modeling projections on Thursday.

Health Minister Ted Flemming is predicting fatalaties between 550 and 1,750 New Brunswickers over the next 12 to 24 months.

He said that at least another two weeks of data will be required before health experts can predict a peak of the pandemic.

An early report from the Canadian Medical Association Journal predicts the peak will occur between early June and mid-July, depending on the level of physical distancing in the province.

Yukon

The province has reported a total of eight cases so far, with only two new cases since April 1.

Health experts have not predicted a peak.

Northwest Territories

The province has reported a total of five cases so far, with no new cases since April 5.

Health experts have not predicted a peak.

Nunavut

Nunavut still has no cases of COVID-19, and therefore is not predicting a peak in cases.

Lead photo by

Alberta Health Services


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