canada covid modelling

Canada's latest COVID-19 modelling indicates huge spike of cases in the next 10 days

The latest COVID-19 modelling in Canada has just been released, and as you might expect by the ridiculously long line-ups outside of testing centres, things are no longer looking good.

The pandemic has been growing since mid-August, according to modelling released on Sept. 22.

Now, health officials warn that Canada could see more than 10,000 new COVID-19 cases by Oct. 2.

canada covid-19 modellingThe Public Health Agency shows that Canada could see a total of 155,975 COVID-19 by Oct. 2, 2020. The red line shows upper 95% confidence limit for the projected number for a given day, while the green line shows the lower 95% confidence limit.

Young adults remain the driving force behind the surging COVID-19 case numbers in Canada.

And while Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam was reluctant to call the growth in case numbers a second wave, she warned that cases could easily skyrocket.

"Everyone is going to ask us, are we in the second wave?" Tam asked. "Well, if you look at that graph — the Canadian graph — it's going up. I can't tell you whether it's going to go down a bit, then up a bit, then down a bit... It's very difficult to say."

"We want to keep it at low moguls," she added. "We do not want it to go up a giant ski hill."

That giant ski hill is represented by the grey line in the chart below, which shows what could happen if Canadians maintain their current behaviour patterns.

canada covid-19 modelling

The Public Health Agency shows that Canada is at a crossroads when it comes to the COVID-19 pandemic. The arrows indicate the direction the curve will take if Canadians maintain, increase or decrease their close contacts.

Health officials noted that COVID-19 case numbers also vary drastically by province.

Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Howard Njoo praised Quebec's leadership throughout the resurgence in cases, highlighting the province's region-by-region approach.

"We would give kudos to, for example, the province of Quebec," Njoo said. "They have this nice, easy to understand, four-colour system... people can get it."

Atlantic Canada similarly has low case numbers.

canada covid modelling

The Public Health Agency shows the daily COVID-19 case numbers in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.

Health officials also warned that a second wave in Canada might not necessarily be smaller than the first.

Countries like Spain (light blue line) and France (thin red line) are seeing higher COVID-19 case loads this autumn than they experienced in spring, for example.

canada covid-19 modellingThe Public Health Agency shows the experience of other countries when it comes to a resurgence of COVID-19 cases.

Canadians have heard it all before, but it bears repeating: face masks, hand washing, and keeping two metres apart can go along way when it comes to preventing the spread of COVID-19.

"We have to act now," Tam said. "Throughout Canada, people should re-train themselves in what we've learned, and just reinforce those measures."

Lead photo by

Alberta Health Services

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